I like to consider myself pretty knowledgeable on matters of Internet advertising. For the past two years I’ve attempted to prove this fact to posterity by publishing annual predictions (like pretty much every other blogger in the universe).
My 2007 predictions came in a little flat, but look a lot better today (Yahoo in play, web 2.0 sites in the DeadPool).
The 2008 predictions are coming in at 3-5-2; three hits, five misses, and two ties. Not terrible for predicting the future. Here’s the rundown.
1. Overpriced widget acquisition
Half credit. There wasn’t a crazy acquisition but there was some crazy funding and valuation. $50 million for Slide — an ad network whose palette of pixels in which they are allowed to show ads is a small segment of other people’s inventory (whose inventory, in any case, retails for sub-$0.25 CPMs) without any context — is clearly overpriced.
2. HD Video Comes to YouTube and Other Video Sites
3. Apple TV Reinvention
No. I thought this was the no-brainer on the list, but Apple seems to have forgotten about the product. Probably should be on the 2009 predictions as a carry-over.
4. Twitter and the Phone Company
No. The idea was that Twitter could be bundled with texting services from the mobile phone companies, thus generating revenue. I still think this is a good idea.
5. Google Gets to 75% Search Share, Ask Gets to 5%
No. Google’s at 62 and Ask is at 4 according to the latest figures. Note, now that I work at Google I will not be making predictions of this kind and cannot comment on the accuracy, appropriateness, or strategies relating to so-called “share”, whatever that is.
6. Internet Advertising Continues Crazy Growth
Yes. I said:
If there’s no recession I’ll put US growth over 30%. If there is a recession, make it 10%.
The Q3 numbers are in at 11%, no matter how weak Q4 is we should come in over 10% for the year.
7. Yahoo Stock is up 20% by End of Year
Shit. You guys know what I meant was “during the year” right?
8. Shake Out in the Online Music Businesses
Half. While there weren’t a lot of headline-generating flameouts, Napster was sold for only $54 million, and Pandora had recent layoffs,
9. Facebook Advertising is a Loser on Site…
Yes. This was a gimme from the start. If it’s not obvious, here’s a link.
10 …and a Controversy Off Site
No. Surprisingly (to me) Facebook didn’t announce any kind of crazy privacy-busting behavioral advertising scheme. There’s always 2009…