2009 Prediction Results 3-5-2

My God, another year flown by. This blog has been…not exactly defunct but…let’s just say I’m not updating as often as I’d like. The action’s on twitter baby, have you heard of it?

I’ve posted exactly three times since I posted my 2009 predictions, a sorry state for someone who calls himself a blogger. I’m not going to do 2010 predictions, but I will do three New Years resolutions:

1. Blog more often.
2. Drink more water.
3. Drink it from the tap, not the bottle.

For the sake of intellectual honesty I will rate my 2009 predictions. Here’s the history:

20093-5-2 (.375)
20083-2-5 (let’s call it .600)
2007Too vague to score

And here’s the 2009 play-by-play:

1. The Year Video Gets Organized

Half credit: There’s been a lot of settling down and organizing in the video world, but VAST still needs a lot more adoption to be viable, and there’s still a ton of operational friction in the marketplace.

2. Mobile (Applications) is Where the Action Is

True. Mobile Applications have finally broken open the medium to brand-friendly ad innovation. Don’t believe me? Try to hire an app developer and see where the demand is. Here’s Ad Age’s take.

3. Video On Demand to the Set-Top Gets Big

False. Although many households are enjoying the benefits of going around their cable companies, the number remains very, very small (I haven’t seen a figure). There’s no doubt in my mind that IP-based on demand is the future of living room viewing, but the incumbent cable companies, armed with money and regulation, will fight every step of the way.

4. Apple TV Gets Serious

False. Still a hobby.

5. Ask.com Makes Moves

False. Unless you consider a red-state strategy as a “move”*. Always foolish to make a prediction that is dependent on Barry Diller.

6. Twitter’s Revenue Model isn’t Advertising

TrueTwitter is apparently profitable, based on selling data to MS and GOOG.

7. Twitter Portalizes in Advance of Advertising


8. Internet Advertising is the Only Growth Story in 2009

Half credit. Although Internet advertising did far better than any other medium, it still declined 4.6% according to eMarketer.

9. “MSN” Retired

False. Unfortunately this meaningless empty brand continues to Live. I mean live. I mean bing.

10. Widgets Still Don’t Make Ad Money

True. Most widget companies have abandoned in-widget ads. I think most of them are actually abandoning the concept of “widgets” entirely. Now they’re just asking you hundreds of fun questions on Facebook and selling your data. Cool?

* – I know a funny off-the-record story on this subject if you buy me a beer.