Looking Back at My 2007 Predictions

Last year around this time I decided to throw my hat in the ring and, like every other blogger in the universe, give my 2007 predictions for the online marketing business. How did I do?

Looking back, most of my predictions were worded in hard-to-verify prose, so many are going to be judgment calls. Where there’s a clear prediction I tended to be…unsupported by the facts at hand. I don’t retreat from these predictions, just from the timing. Given another 12-24 months I’d say most of these are gimmes. Love to hear your thoughts.

AdSense for Video, plus Competitors
Although AdSense for video launched, the crux of this prediction was that there would be a lot of consolidation around the video content managers and ad networks. That didn’t really happen. The consolidation was more focused on the consumer plays, with NBBC folded into Hulu and Brightcove giving up its consumer ambitions.

Open Source Video Platforms will Emerge
There are some projects going on, but nothing broke through.

Apollo is a Big Deal
The momentum is in the right direction, but taking a little longer than expected. I’d double-down on this bet if I could get another six months to let it ride.

AOL/MSN/Yahoo will be in Play
Interesting blind spot I had in retrospect. There was huge consolidation in the business, but it was in the ad serving and technology side (e.g. Google-DoubleClick and MS-Aquantive) rather than in the portal side.

Lots of 2.0 Sites will Enter the DeadPool
This was a gimme and especially hard to measure since companies are always going out of business. If I had to be honest I’d say that I was expected a bit more dead than evidenced by the ebay auctions. Facebook came in with a hell of a life preserver midway through the year, taking customer acquisition costs entirely off the excel, but still someone’s got to pay the Amazon bills.

Social Media Moves to Core, Powering Niches
Another vague prediction that sort of came true. Services like Ning will have more profound impact on individuals than Facebook ever will, but give it another 12 months before it becomes obvious.

Emergence of Online Media Agents
This didn’t happen. Or if it did, no one told me. There would definitely have been a NYTimes article if something this upper-crusty and trendy happened, and I’ve got the Saturday/Sunday subscription.

Media Roll-Ups Won’t Work
Sad to say, I don’t know if this happened or not. Wow, I’m out of the loop.

3D Environments Won’t Hit Mainstream
I’d call this a win, though predicting that something won’t happen is much higher probability than a positive prediction. Everyone did realize that SecondLife was a marketing ghetto, which is a positive.

Mobile Applications as Advertising Vehicles
Definitely didn’t happen this year. Once again I’d double down if given a chance, but I need 12-24 months on this one. Too much to do in the mobile arena before anyone breaks out.

That’s it. Look forward to 2008 predictions later this week.